How NYC Counties May Vote?

Submitted by ub on Tue, 04/19/2016 - 07:26


NYC 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 12th, 13th and 15th districts

This doesn’t make much sense on the surface. The Bronx, Brooklyn and Manhattan don’t look alike. I’m a Latino from City Island, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. The Bronx has seen changes over the past 3 decades, with the percentage of Latino residents rising from 34 percent in 1980 to 55 percent today. The black population has risen by 7 percent in the past four years.

The only congressional district entirely within The Bronx is the 15th district. It has the lowest median income of any congressional district in the nation, and only 3 percent of its voting-eligible population is non-Hispanic white it’s 61 percent Hispanic. That’s why only 285 people cast a vote in the old version of this district called the 16th in the 2012 Republican primary. This will be one of the few places in the entire country where the majority of the Republican primary vote will be non-white.

Brooklyn is a different story.The 8th district and 9th district are both heavily African-American, but also have seen major gentrification in places like Crown Heights and Park Slope. Perhaps most important for this primary: Over 45 percent of the white population in the 7th, 8th and 9th districts has a college education, and Trump has struggled with well-educated voters. Additionally, both the 8th and 9th districts are over 19 percent Jewish. The 8th district, in particular, has a high population of Russian Jews, who are more likely to be registered Republicans than others.

Manhattan is 67 percent or more of white voters who have a college education on the West Side (10th district), East Side (12th district) and the northern part of the borough 13th district. These could be among Trump’s 3 weakest in the state. A recent poll had Trump well under 50 percent in all but the 8th. Kasich is probably best positioned to do well in the Manhattan districts, while the strong Jewish vote in the 8th gives Cruz a shot to at least come in second. Cruz may be able to pull off a surprise win, or close second in the 15th district, which has repeatedly elected a socially conservative state senator. Still, only a small percentage of voters in any of these districts will vote in the Republican primary. Most have about 30,000 registered Republicans or less.

in Manhattan, the 2016 campaign has realigned its Democratic electorate, Clinton is winning about eight-in-10 black voters. That makes US Rep. Rangel’s district, which has changed slightly due to redistricting and now takes in some of The Bronx critical to her efforts. While polls show Clinton is poised to equal her 2008 vote percentage statewide, she’ll likely run well ahead of her past performance in Rangel’s district.

Staten Island: New York City contains parts of 13 congressional districts, but a quarter of the city’s registered Republicans come from a single district: the 11th, which comprises all of Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn.

Trump held an event on Staten Island on Sunday and is expected to win a majority of the vote in the 11th and take all three delegates up for grabs. But it’s also a place where he can pad his statewide margin in his effort to win a majority of the vote, which would trigger a winner-take-all provision for statewide delegates.

The Bronx contrast between the Staten Island-based 11th District, where almost 6,000 Republicans voted in the 2012 GOP presidential primary, and The Bronx-based 15th District is severe the 15th is the most Democratic district in the entire country.

Only 285 Republicans cast ballots in the 2012 GOP presidential primary in US Rep.José Serrano’s district but both districts will award the same number of delegates today. This is the reason why Kasich spent a day eating his way through the historically Italian and Albanian Belmont section of The Bronx, including a trip to a deli inside the Arthur Avenue food market. The Ohio governor could steal a delegate or two from the most Democratic districts in the city if he holds Trump under 50 percent.